XAUUSD Weekly Forecast (Oct 5–9, 2026): Gold Levels After NFP

XAU/USD enters October 5–9 near $4,140 after trading between approximately $4,110.55 and $4,182 during the previous week — a second consecutive weekly decline of about 3.4% (Reuters).

The first important support zone is approximately $4,110–$4,130, anchored by the September 28 seven-week low. Below that, traders can monitor approximately $4,080–$4,100 and the major psychological $4,000–$4,040 area.

The first resistance buyers need to recover is approximately $4,180–$4,200. Above that, $4,260–$4,290 becomes the next important technical area, followed by broader resistance around $4,300–$4,320.

The week's biggest scheduled US catalysts are ISM Services PMI, the FOMC minutes, weekly jobless claims and University of Michigan sentiment. September CPI (October 14) and October NFP (November 6) both fall outside this forecast period.

The technical picture therefore begins cautiously below $4,180, but the upcoming macro data and Fed minutes could quickly change the structure.

The September 28–October 2 week was bearish for gold. Spot gold fell to a seven-week low of $4,110.55 on Monday, September 28 — the lowest level since August 5 — pressured by a diplomatic impasse over the Iran war and rising rate-hike expectations (Reuters). Gold then recovered toward the $4,180s mid-week before the October 2 payrolls release.

On Friday, October 2 at 8:30 AM ET, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the September Employment Situation report (BLS). Nonfarm payroll employment rose by just +29,000, well below the consensus range, and the unemployment rate was 4.2%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year. Critically, July was revised down to -10,000 (from +21,000) and August was revised down to +133,000 — a combined 60,000 downward revision.

Despite the weak labour data, gold could not sustain a rally. Reuters reported spot gold at $4,140.06 by 2:33 PM EDT (18:33 GMT), down 0.9% on the day and about 3.4% on the week — a second consecutive weekly decline. The paradox is explained by the bond market: the 10-year Treasury yield closed near 5.28% (WSJ), having touched its highest levels since 2002 earlier in the week, reflecting fiscal-deficit and term-premium concerns that overwhelmed the soft-jobs signal. The Dollar Index (DXY) closed around 101.92, essentially flat on the day.

HSBC also lowered its 2026 average gold price forecast to $4,490 per ounce (Reuters, October 1), adding to the cautious institutional tone. For broader context on the macroeconomic forces behind gold, see our XAUUSD fundamental analysis guide.

Note on instruments: the $4,140.06 figure is spot gold (XAU/USD) as reported by Reuters. COMEX December 2026 gold futures settled at $4,162.30 (-$30.20, -0.72%) the same day, with an intraday high of $4,259. This article uses spot gold as the primary reference because that is the instrument most retail XAU/USD traders see on their charts.

Daily structure: Gold is trading below its previous weekly structure after losing the $4,300 area. The daily trend is bearish into October 5, with price anchored near $4,140 and the September 28 low of $4,110.55 acting as the immediate downside reference. A daily close below $4,110 would open the path toward the $4,000 psychological level.

H4 confirmation: On the four-hour timeframe, gold carved a recovery from the $4,110.55 low toward the $4,180s between September 29 and October 1, then rolled over into the October 2 NFP release. The H4 structure is range-bound between roughly $4,110 and $4,182 until one of those levels breaks with conviction.

Swing references: The key spot swing low is $4,110.55 (Sep 28). The pre-drop spot swing high is approximately $4,287 (Sep 25 close). The spot recovery high cluster sits around $4,180–$4,190 (Sep 29–30 closes). Separately, the COMEX December 2026 futures contract printed an intraday high of $4,259 on October 2 — this is a futures level, not a spot XAU/USD level, and is included only as a cross-market reference.

Momentum context: The dominant fundamental headwind is the 10-year Treasury yield near 5.28% — its highest since 2002. Even weak US data has not translated into sustained gold strength because real yields remain elevated. Gold's momentum therefore depends less on the dollar and more on whether yields finally roll over.

Invalidation: The bearish structure invalidates on a convincing daily close above $4,200, and especially above $4,260. The bullish recovery case invalidates on a daily close below $4,110, which would target $4,000. For a deeper framework on marking these zones, see our XAUUSD support and resistance guide.

The October 7 release is the single most market-moving event of the week for gold, and the reason is unusual. At the September 15–16 meeting the FOMC raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% — the first hike since July 2023 and Chair Kevin Warsh's first major policy action. The accompanying dot plot signalled one more hike by year-end. But Warsh has explicitly rejected forward guidance and avoided discussing Committee deliberations in his press conferences.

That makes the minutes the only near-term window into how Committee members are weighing inflation against labour-market softening. Three things to watch for:

• Inflation language: Any emphasis on sticky services inflation or concern about the 3.0% wage growth (from the October 2 NFP) would be read as hawkish and pressure gold.
• Labour-market caution: If multiple participants flagged a cooling labour market — which the +29,000 NFP and -60,000 combined revisions now confirm — the market may price out the year-end hike and give gold relief.
• Dissent and data-dependence: The September decision was unanimous, but the minutes may reveal a wider debate. Stronger data-dependent language reduces path certainty and tends to weaken the dollar.

Note: the next FOMC decision is October 27–28, 2026, not a November meeting — there is no November 2026 FOMC meeting on the official calendar. So the October 7 minutes are the last official Fed communication before that late-October decision, which raises their weight for gold traders.

For timing entries around the 2:00 PM ET release, our Forex Market Hours Clock shows the live EDT and PKT session overlap. And to understand which sessions carry the most gold volatility, see our guide on XAUUSD volatility by trading session.

A week with ISM Services, FOMC minutes, jobless claims and University of Michigan sentiment is a high-event-risk week. Sound risk management matters more than any single forecast.

News volatility: The FOMC minutes at 2:00 PM ET can move gold $20–$40 in minutes. The first move is frequently a liquidity sweep before the real direction emerges. Avoid entering in the first 1–2 minutes after the release unless you have a strict news-trading plan.

Stop placement: Place stops outside logical structure, not at arbitrary round numbers. Beneath the $4,110.55 swing low is structurally cleaner than a stop at $4,100 exactly, because the round number is where stop-hunts cluster.

Position sizing: Define your risk in account-currency terms first, then derive lot size from the stop distance. Our XAUUSD Lot Size Calculator does this math for gold directly — use it before every event trade. For worked examples of the underlying risk framework, see our forex risk management for beginners guide.

Pip value: When gold moves $1, the monetary impact per lot depends on your contract size and pip convention. Our XAUUSD Pip Value Calculator converts any price move into account-currency terms so your risk stays explicit.

Spread and slippage: Spreads on XAU/USD routinely widen 3–5× around FOMC minutes and ISM releases. If your stop is tight, slippage can take you out before the real move. Either widen the stop or stand aside during the release window.

Best times to trade: Gold liquidity peaks during the London–New York overlap. For Pakistan-based traders, our best time to trade XAUUSD guide maps the highest-activity windows in PKT.

For more gold market coverage, visit the Gold Signals section for educational gold-market observations, or the XAUUSD Analysis hub for the broader analytical framework.

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